Measured, not marketed
Do GEX levels actually hold? We measured.
Everyone selling gamma levels claims they matter. Nobody shows you the numbers. Here are ours — 70 sessions, 17,600 intraday snapshots on NQ futures (May 26 – Aug 26, 2026), scored against a proper random-walk baseline. The misses are published with the hits.
Read this first: the baseline is 38%, not 50%
A "hold" here means price came within 15 NQ points of a level, then bounced at least 25 points away before closing more than 15 points through it. Because those thresholds are asymmetric, a coin-flip market with no levels at all would still "hold" about 38% of the time (the gambler's-ruin ratio, break / (react + break)). So 50% is not neutral — 38% is. A level is only informative to the extent its hold rate sits away from 38%. Below 38% is information too: the level breaks more than chance — it behaves like a magnet, not a barrier.
The four findings that matter
The strongest reaction measured (n=63, baseline 38%). When dealers are short gamma and price trades down into the Put Wall, it has bounced roughly two times in three. This nuances the common doctrine "never fade a wall in negative gamma" — the Put Wall, specifically, has been where downside moves stall. Still 54% under stricter thresholds — the signal survives.
The lower edge of the neutral zone in a long-gamma tape (n=197 — the largest reliable sample in the set): +20 points over baseline. Calm regimes have respected their floor far more often than chance.
The top-ranked confluence level (n=70) held clearly above baseline in short-gamma conditions — evidence that stacked independent readings beat any single input.
Below baseline in both parameter sets (n=36): in long-gamma conditions the third focus level has broken more often than chance — a magnet, not a barrier. We publish this because a level that doesn't hold is exactly what you need to know.
Full table — every combination with n ≥ 30
Default parameters: touch ≤ 15 pts · hold ≥ 25 pts · break > 15 pts (baseline 38%). Stricter set: touch ≤ 10 · hold ≥ 40 · break > 20 (baseline 33%). "All conditions" rows include older sessions where the gamma regime was not recorded.
| Level | Gamma regime | Touches | Hold rate | Stricter set |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Put Wall | Negative | 63 | 67% | 54% |
| Focus 1 | Negative | 70 | 59% | 46% |
| Battle Zone low | Positive | 197 | 58% | 46% |
| Focus 2 | All conditions | 301 | 57% | 51% |
| Focus 2 | Negative | 57 | 56% | 51% |
| Focus 3 | Negative | 94 | 55% | 48% |
| Battle Zone high | All conditions | 1,500 | 54% | 48% |
| Focus 1 | All conditions | 240 | 54% | 46% |
| Battle Zone high | Negative | 310 | 53% | 45% |
| Battle Zone low | Negative | 283 | 53% | 46% |
| Focus 3 | All conditions | 258 | 53% | 48% |
| Call Wall | All conditions | 70 | 53% | 46% |
| Put Wall | All conditions | 135 | 51% | 51% |
| Gamma Flip | All conditions | 312 | 50% | 42% |
| Battle Zone low | All conditions | 1,549 | 47% | 39% |
| Focus 3 | Positive | 36 | 36% | 24% |
The pattern across the whole table: individual levels alone sit modestly above baseline (51–57%). What separates is the combination of level × regime — which is exactly how the methodology teaches these levels should be read: as context inside a regime, never as standalone triggers.
Methodology & honest limitations
Data
70 trading sessions, 17,600 timestamped snapshots (May 26 – Aug 26, 2026), NQ futures pricing with levels captured intraday, minutes apart. Levels are the same ones the Indicator publishes — nothing was recomputed after the fact.
Scoring
A touch = price within the touch threshold of a level. A hold = a bounce of at least the react threshold before any close beyond the break threshold. A level re-arms only after price leaves twice the touch distance, so one visit is never double-counted. Every headline figure is checked under a second, stricter parameter set — a result that vanishes when thresholds tighten is not reported as a finding.
What this is not
These are descriptive statistics about price behaviour around structural levels — not trading results. No entries, exits, P&L, slippage, spreads or decision latency are modelled, and nothing here is a claim that trading these levels is or was profitable. Snapshots are minutes apart, so fast wicks between snapshots under-count touches. Sessions are autocorrelated, so we deliberately publish no p-values.
Updates
The dataset grows every session. We re-run the measurement as data accumulates and update this page — including any finding that weakens. If a number here later degrades, you will see it degrade.
The levels behind these numbers
The Indicator draws these same levels — walls, flip, focus levels, battle zone and the regime read — live on your own chart, locked at each session's open. The free Morning Map shows the previous session's core map every trading day.
See the Indicator Education only · context, never signalsEducational market research only — not financial advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument, and not a prediction of future behaviour. Hold rates describe how price historically behaved near structural levels under specific measurement parameters; they are not trading performance, imply no profitability, and past behaviour does not indicate future results. Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss.